By Andrea Tucci,
The United States, especially under President Trump, sent a clear message: a retreat from its historic role as the dominant power in the Gulf region. The reinforcement of the “America First” doctrine signaled Washington’s intent to step back, leaving Gulf states to fend more for themselves. Yet, in this strategic vision, the U.S. failed to account for a key actor: Israel.
Following the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu overturned Israel’s traditional military doctrine. What was once characterized by targeted and periodic operations has become a disruptive, maximalist, and ideologically rigid approach.
Although a decisive victory in Gaza remains elusive, Israel has succeeded in halting Hezbollah and compromising its command structure. Buoyed by these tactical gains, Netanyahu has raised the stakes, launching deep strikes even within Iran.
His goal is not solely military. It is also to prevent a negotiated nuclear deal between Washington and Tehran and to push for regime change in Iran.
By igniting a high-stakes crisis, Netanyahu has not only reasserted his geopolitical relevance but has also sought to draw Trump toward a destabilizing conflict, killing off any chance of a nuclear deal before it could materialize, while reshaping the regional landscape to suit Israel’s interests. He has also leveraged Israel’s technological, military, and intelligence superiority to impose his conditions on U.S. Middle East policy.
Netanyahu, a longtime proponent of American neoconservatism and an advocate of U.S. military interventions in Iraq and Iran since the 1980s, is not pursuing inclusive regional stability. His aim is to unilaterally reshape the Middle East. His strategy toward Iran revolves around the progressive attrition of the regime, using targeted attacks to hollow out its political and military infrastructure.
The potential assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei could mark the end of a long-contested religious dictatorship, but at what cost?
Without a charismatic leader and a unified vision, Iran risks becoming an uncontrollable state.
History teaches us the many failures of regime change,whether in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, or Syria. The American model, based on military force, alliances with local elites, or support for rebels,has repeatedly failed to deliver stability, democracy, or order. More often, it has empowered enemies, created power vacuums exploited by jihadists, and worsened the U.S.’s image in the region.
Therefore, eliminating Iran’s Supreme Leader without a clear strategy and the capacity to build something lasting could push the Islamic Republic toward a military dictatorship dominated by the IRGC, much like what happened with the president Morsi together with the Muslim brothers in Egypt.
This would bring further instability, create new havens for jihadists, and fuel more terrorist attacks against the West. In such a scenario, Israel would retreat behind fortified barriers in Jordan and Iraq, while the Gulf states would inherit chronic instability.
Netanyahu is steering Israel toward a form of Jewish fundamentalism that is increasingly isolationist, belligerent, and indifferent to the interests of its Arab neighbors,not to mention the Palestinians, now suffering under an occupation that is been turned into a genocide.
The bitterest irony is that by trying to dismantle the Iranian state without building anything in its place, Israel, backed by the tacit support of the United States, may end up making Iran even more dangerous and ungovernable.
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